Kansas basketball coach Bill Self was in a jovial mood Tuesday night.

How could he not be after his team finished pounding Albany 79-43? He also was enthusiastic about Oklahoma State’s 31-28 lead in the Holiday Bowl with 12 minutes remaining.

“Let’s make this quick,” Self said as he entered his postgame press conference. “I want to watch my alma mater.”

The press conference didn’t go any quicker than normal. And the Cowboys failed to hang on and let Oregon score twice in the final 11 minutes to make the final score 42-31.

Bummer. Not just for Self, but also for Case Closed. Tuesday marked the first decisively downbeat day for this pick ‘em. If it wasn’t for Maryland’s 42-35 victory against Nevada in the Humanitarian Bowl, 0-3 would have been the record for both against the spread and straight-up picks.

Instead, we went 1-2. Case Closed is now teetering dangerously near the .500 mark. The next two days should determine the ultimate fate as 10 bowl games fill the calendar.

Excuse the following if it’s sloppier than normal. Keep in mind it’s currently 1:00 in the morning after a full night of covering the basketball game…

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl, Fort Worth, Texas, 11:00

Houston (-3.5) over Air Force- How could I ever pick against a quarterback with a name so similar to my own? Houston’s Chase Keenum, that is. Actually, it would be pretty easy to side with the Falcons. Air Force beat Houston 31-28 when the two teams faced off earlier this season. The Falcons play football the way it’s meant to be played with a strong offensive line and destructive tandem of running backs. Led by quarterback Tim Jefferson and running back Asher Clark, five Falcons routinely receive carries. Their traditional triple-option attack translates into the fifth best rushing offense in the country. Defensively, Air Force is sound as well with a secondary able to commit turnovers. The Falcons rank 10th in the nation in turnover margin.

Unlike Air Force, however, Houston has improved since the two teams faced off in the third week of the season. Keenum has progressed to the point of leading the nation in total offense with 416 yards per game. He’s thrown for at least 400 yards in each of the last four Cougar games. And believe it or not, the Cougars are balanced. Freshman running back Bryce Beall has catapulted to the top of the list of young ball carriers in the nation. He has five games with at least 100 yards and has the speed to turn a routine run into a game-changing sprint down the field. Defensively, Houston has the pieces necessary to slow Air Force. Senior defensive end Phillip Hunt heads the unit and he’ll have to play assignment-sound football on the line if the Cougars are expecting victory in Fort Worth. Even if Hunt doesn’t, the Cougars are the selection here. Look no further than Case Keenum.

Brut Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas, 1:00

Oregon State (-2.5) over Pittsburgh- Balance is a delicate thing. Scratch that – if you’re talking about football, balance is valuable thing. And it’s why Oregon State will ultimately beat Pittsburgh by a touchdown tomorrow in Texas. Panther sophomore running back LeSean McCoy will no doubt be the most talented player in the game. McCoy overpowers people and is the primary reason Pittsburgh went 9-3 this season and barely missed winning the Big East championship. Quarterback Bill Stull isn’t quite on McCoy’s level. He threw the same amount of touchdowns as interceptions this season – nine – and doesn’t produce many big plays. Defensively, the Panthers are tough. Linebacker Scott McKillop is 12th in the nation in tackles and swarms ball carriers. A productive defensive line plays in front of McKillop and allows him to make plays against the run.

But haven’t we seen Oregon State prevail against stout defenses? Oh yeah, the Beavers did beat USC at the beginning of the year by releasing freshman running back Jacquizz Rodgers to run all over the Trojans. Rodgers gained 187 yards in the game and is exciting every time he touches the ball. He’s not as good as McCoy, however, Rodgers has a better offensive line. Led by left tackle Andrew Levitre, much of the Beavers’ proficiency on the ground should be credited to the veteran offensive line unit. Pittsburgh supporters point to the injury of Jacquizz’s brother – receiver Mike Rodgers – as a reason why the Panthers will cover. Not buying it because senior Sammie Stroughter remains Oregon State’s best receiver and could have a big game to make up for Mike Rodgers’ absence.

Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl, Nashville, Tenn., 2:30

Vanderbilt (+3.5) over Boston College- Every possible piece of information about this game points toward the Eagles rolling the Commodores. Boston College picked off a nation-high 26 passes this season. It was 9-3 in the regular season and the ACC Runner-Up, while Vanderbilt went 6-6 after starting the season 5-0. Despite all of that, Vanderbilt should come out and win this game. Why? After 26 years without a bowl game appearance let alone a victory, the Commodores are going to be more motivated than any other team this bowl season.

Plus, the Eagles aren’t that much better than them. Boston College probably wasn’t in the top five most talented teams in the ACC, but the bizarre nature of the conference this year sent it to the championship game. It is forced to start a freshman quarterback in Dominique Davis because of injuries. The Vanderbilt secondary might feast on Davis. Vanderbilt’s core defensive back group of D.J. Moore, Myron Lewis, Ryan Hamilton and Reshard Lankford is one of the nation’s best-kept secrets. Each of them has at least three interceptions on the year. That will leave Boston College running back Montel Harris, who averages only 69 yards per game, with the pressure of moving the chains. Expect Vanderbilt to pull out everything offensively. Moore, Vanderbilt’s best cornerback, doubles as a receiver at certain points of the game. The Commodores also use two quarterbacks in Chris Nickson and Mackenzi Adams. Anyone smell a trick play cooking? This game means too much to Vanderbilt. They have to win, or else it might be another 26 years before another opportunity comes.

Insight Bowl, Tempe, Ariz., 4:30

Kansas (-9) over Minnesota- First of all, I want to make it known that I don’t consider myself biased in the least bit for Kansas. I never grew up a fan of Kansas and in addition, have covered this team long enough to not feel like a fan. With that said, I think the Jayhawks destroying the Golden Gophers is one of the biggest locks of bowl season. It’s almost impossible to find any area of this game where Minnesota has a significant advantage. The best I could come up with is Minnesota receiver Eric Decker, who has the ability to give a weak Kansas secondary fits. Some would say defensive end Willie VanDeSteeg as the other obvious choice, but Todd Reesing has become accustomed to running for his life. Is VanDeSteeg really considerably better than the set of defensive ends Kansas has faced in Big 12 play anyway?

Minnesota beat one bowl-bound team all season and that was Northern Illinois, who lost to Louisiana Tech in the Independence Bowl, barely by a score of 31-27. Kansas, however, only beat two in Louisiana Tech and Missouri. But the Jayhawks were more than banged up in the 40-37 victory against Missouri to end the season. In case you forgot from the 5,476 times you’ve heard it this week, Minnesota capped off its season with a 55-0 loss to Iowa. Yikes. Although the Golden Golphers might stay in this game for a while, a healthy Kansas team simply overmatches them. It’s not far-fetched to think that both Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier compile 100-yard receiving days. Even if Minnesota quarterback Adam Weber gets off to a quick start, Darrell Stuckey can be counted on for one turnover. Congratulations to coach Tim Brewster and his great turnaround of the Gopher program. But it’s not going to end with a bowl victory.

Chick-Fil-A Bowl, Atlanta, 6:30

LSU (+4) over Georgia Tech- It’s funny how one player can set a program back so far. When the Tigers lost quarterback Ryan Perrilloux before the season because of disciplinary reasons, a lot of their goals were lost. Perrilloux played a prominent role on last year’s national championship team, starting two games when Matt Flynn was injured. He would be the starter for 2008 and the Tigers would once again be in the thick of the race for an SEC Championship. Instead of relying on an experienced quarterback, LSU coach Les Miles has had to play quarterback chairs with three others. Freshman Jarrett Lee, freshman Jordan Jefferson and junior Harvard-transfer Andrew Hatch have all taken snaps this season. None has found much success.

It’s a shame because the Tigers have so much talent in nearly every other area. Charles Scott and Keiland Williams lead a rushing attack that ranked fourth in the SEC. One of the best receiving corps in the nation – featuring Brandon LaFell, Terrence Tolliver and Demetrius Byrd – have gone to waste without anyone to consistently get them the ball. Defensively, the Tigers are still sound, though not outstanding. The defensive line is their best unit and features defensive ends Rahim Allen and Tyson Jackson. The question that this game will come down to is whether or not Les Miles has prepared the Tigers enough for the Yellow Jackets’ triple-option attack. Georgia Tech was clearly the better team to end the season. It disposed of both Miami and Georgia, while LSU nearly lost its last four in a row. Georgia Tech fullback Jonathan Dwyer leads the Yellow Jackets to victory. But only by three points.

Outback Bowl, Tampa, Fla., January 1st 10:00

Iowa (-4) over South Carolina- Iowa counts on running back Shonn Greene to make a couple of big plays every game. Against South Carolina, that will be enough. Greene, the nation’s second leading rusher with 1,729 yards, is on a tear to end the season. Although he will likely not reach his average of nearly 150 rushing yards per game because of the stingy Gamecock defense, the Hawkeye offense doesn’t need to put up many points. Their defense can be ferocious. Defensive end Mitch King has recorded 15 tackles for loss and four sacks this season. Linebacker Pat Angerer is the Hawkeyes’ leading tackler and will face the not-so-daunting pass of shutting down the South Carolina rushing attack.

The Gamecocks rank 108th in the nation in rushing offense and haven’t established a running game at all this season. It might headline the offensive problem, but it’s far from the only one. Coach Steve Spurrier is using two quarterbacks – Chris Smelley and Stephen Garcia. Garcia, who is coming home to Tampa to play, has probably played the best but has a limited grasp on the offense. Smelley has led the Gamecocks down the field in spurts, but has a turnover problem with 15 interceptions this season. South Carolina usually relies on its defense to win games. And that’s with good reason. It is loaded with NFL talent, especially in the linebacking corps with Jasper Brinkley and Eric Norwood. Brinkley and Norwood punish opposing running backs and make it tough to get into a rhythm. That could happen against Iowa, but Greene will be undeterred. He’ll make sure the Hawkeyes at least score some points. Not so sure who can do that for the Gamecocks.

Capital One Bowl, Orlando, Fla., January 1st Noon

Georgia (-7.5) over Michigan State- Now that we’re done with the nation’s second-leading rusher, it’s on to the third. And that’s not Georgia’s Knowshon Moreno. Nope, Michigan State’s Javon Ringer ranks third in the nation in rushing yards with 1,590. That could be troublesome for the Bulldogs, who were gashed for more than 400 rushing yards in their final game of the season – a 45-42 defeat to Georgia Tech. But the Yellow Jackets confused the Bulldogs with their triple-option attack and number of running backs with different styles. Michigan State won’t be able to do that. It’s going to be all Ringer all the time and that doesn’t bode well for the Spartans. Georgia has the athleticism and bulk on defense to slow Ringer. Linebacker Rennie Curran is one of the SEC’s best defensive players and has 109 tackles on the season.

Even if Georgia gives up some points to Michigan State, it shouldn’t be a problem. The Spartans don’t have a consistent pass defense and are giving up an average of 210 passing yards per game. Georgia throws for 280 per game. Everything points toward quarterback Matthew Stafford having a career day in what is likely his last game as a Bulldog. Receivers A.J. Greene and Mohamed Mossaquoi are both within 70 yards of reaching the 1,000 yard mark, which only one Georgia receiver has done previously. Handing it off to Moreno is always a nice luxury to have, but he might not be the focus of this game. Georgia is going to come out throwing down the field. And its probably not going to face enough resistance to slow it.

Konika Minolta Gator Bowl, Jacksonville, Fla., January 1st Noon

Nebraska (+2.5) over Clemson- One of the most affected victims of the amazing collection of quarterbacks assembled in the Big 12 is Joe Ganz. The Nebraska quarterback, 14th in the nation in passing efficiency, would receive a lot more attention any other year. Because he’s solid. Ganz has led Nebraska to wins in five of its last six games and an overtime defeat at Texas Tech. He’s flanked by talented receivers Nate Swift and Todd Peterson, who average more than 125 receiving yards per game combined. For Nebraska, their offensive skill positions come in twos. The Cornhuskers also use two running backs – Marlon Lucky and Roy Helu, Jr. – to keep defenses off base.

For Nebraska, this game could be a message for the start of next season. Bo

Pelini’s squad will be hungry for a Big 12 North title and appearance in the Big 12 Championship Game in 2009. Look for the Cornhuskers’ youngsters to treat this like its first game of next season, not the last of this season. Meanwhile, it’s the end of an era at Clemson. The running back tandem of James Davis and C.J. Spiller will make its last stand as Davis will graduate. The two never brought an ACC Championship or BCS bowl appearance to the Tigers, but this could be quite the consolation prize. Clemson has won four of its last five games after being 3-4 and firing head coach Tommy Bowden in the middle of the season. The Tigers might be more talented and could easily beat the Cornhuskers. But don’t make the mistake of overlooking Nebraska like everyone has done to Ganz this season.

Rose Bowl Game Presented By Citi, Pasadena, Calif., 3:30

Penn State (+10) over Southern California- The illusion stops now. The Trojan offense is not dominant. Heck, it’s average. The recent ghosts of Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, Carson Palmer and Dwayne Jarrett mean nothing. Those teams had an offensive line. This team does not. The biggest reason the Trojans’ stable of highly recruited running backs hasn’t become one of the nation’s best unit is an offensive line that doesn’t dominate. And the line will have a tough task against the Nittany Lions. Defensive end Aaron Maybin has proven to be un-blockable at times this season and has 12 sacks, good for fourth in the nation. Stopping the pass starts with Maybin while stopping the run starts with linebacker Navorro Bowman. Despite the (usually true) stereotype that Big 10 teams have slow defenses, it doesn’t work with Penn State. Today USC quarterback Mark Sanchez will find that out when most of the offensive burden falls on his shoulders.

OK, enough USC hating. Let’s get on to praising. It’s possible to say something bad about its defense, but impossible to say it with any conviction. The Trojan defense is outstanding. Mentioning one standout is tough because all of the starting 11 are capable of changing a game. Outside linebacker Brian Cushing will probably make the best pro, defensive end Kyle Moore has a knack for getting to the quarterback and safety Kevin Ellison can hit. Still, Penn State is averaging 40 points per game and are going to score some in the Rose Bowl. Receiver Derrick Williams is a versatile threat and sometimes lines up out of the backfield. USC’s prowess won’t bother quarterback Darryl Clark, who has put together a highlight-filled season of his own. Also, USC might play complacent compared with Penn State. A trip to the Rose Bowl means more to Joe Paterno and the Nittany Lions at this point. Expect USC to pull it out by a touchdown. But Penn State will have its chances.

FedEx Orange Bowl, Miami, 7:30

Virginia Tech (+2.5) over Cincinnati- The Bearcats switched their team hotel yesterday after P. Diddy showed up with an enlarged entourage for his New Year’s Eve Party. It’s a funny and seemingly inconsequential side to the Orange Bowl. But as foolish as it sounds, it’s an illustration of why I’m choosing Virginia Tech to win this game. Cincinnati is not used to this kind of hype surrounding a single football game. The Bearcats went to the Sun Bowl a couple times around 1950, but since then they haven’t competed in anything close to a top tier bowl. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech has become veterans at this. The Hokies are in a bowl for their 16th straight season and the second straight at Dolphin Stadium for the Orange Bowl. Coach Frank Beamer and defensive coordinator Bud Foster will have the Hokies prepared for this one.

Although it’s often over-rated, experience is the reason why Virginia Tech wins this one. And Macho Harris. The Bearcats want to throw the ball. They have a fairly balanced offense but because of quarterback Tony Pike and receiver Dominick Goodman, their passing game is a bit ahead of the ground game. That’s good news for the Hokies, who have the pieces in the secondary to frustrate Pike. Harris is one of the best cover men in the country and leads a defense ranked 13th in the nation against the pass. On the other hand, Virginia Tech cannot pass the ball. Only eight teams recorded fewer passing yards in the nation. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor runs instead – and he does it well. In the last game of the regular season, Taylor rushed for more than 130 yards. Although Cincinnati has stopped mobile quarterbacks Pat White and Matt Grothe in earlier victories, it could go the other way tonight. This game is different. It’s the Orange Bowl.





Bowl Season Records

Against The Spread: 9-8

Straight-Up: 9-8