Posted on January 8, 2009
First of all, this Bowl Pick ‘Em project proved to be more time-consuming and draining than I ever imagined. Researching and picking bowls that might as well be named the Idaho County Plumber’s Union Bowl at 3:00 a.m. can do that.
But I’d do it all again. It’s been a fun way to waste time over Christmas Break. Heck, it’s been a blast.
How could it not be after going 22-11 against the spread so far? Trust me, that kind of success was not expected. On second thought, I should have charged $50 to read Case Closed for my picks. I know that record beats some of the bogus betting services available out there that charge more.
So thanks to anyone who has read any of the entries. But enough blabber. Because this is it.
The BCS National Championship Game. Tonight. Four hours away. If the showdown at Dolphin Stadium isn’t the best national championship since the 2006 Rose Bowl between Texas and USC, something must have gone terribly wrong.
Forget all the drama about Utah, Texas and USC and who should be No. 1 for one night because regardless, this game should be a dandy. Both of these teams are spectacular and loaded with both current and future stars.
I can’t say every game over the past three weeks has been exciting to blog about. Good thing they save the best one for last….
FedEx BCS National Championship Game, Miami, 7:00
Oklahoma (+5) over Florida, Florida straight-up- Whether you’re picking Florida or Oklahoma to win, you’ve got convincing evidence. It’s available on both sides. The Sooners are the doubted ones who have spent the week defending why they should be here. Teams in this position – like Florida two years ago – have traditionally fared well in national championship games. But Florida has the Heisman curse on its side. The Heisman winner seemingly never comes out firing in bowl games. Florida also has a motivated Tim Tebow after cornerback Dominique Franks said he would be the fourth best quarterback in the Big 12. Oklahoma has seniors. Florida doesn’t. Florida supporters can point to the stink-job fellow Big 12 South teams have provided in bowl games thus far. Oklahoma supporters can point to fate – according to the South Florida Sun Sentinel, if Bob Stoops wins this game his 110-23 career record will be identical to what former Oklahoma coach Barry Switzer’s was once.
But let’s push all that aside for a second and look at the product on the field. That’s what Stoops and Florida coach Urban Meyer would want us to do. And the Gators win in that regard. Florida is a better team than Oklahoma. Especially without DeMarco Murray. With all the attention on whether or not Florida’s Percy Harvin will play, the Sooners losing Murray has been undervalued. Significantly. What people nationally fail to realize is that Murray is Oklahoma’s Harvin. Murray can do it all. Return kicks. Catch passes. Run the ball. It’s no coincidence that Oklahoma’s five-game explosion of scoring more than 60 points came right when Murray got back to full health. Having to play without him puts Oklahoma at a serious disadvantage.
As if it wasn’t disadvantaged already. Oklahoma hasn’t seen a defense the caliber of Florida’s. Linebacker Brandon Spikes is one of the best defensive players in the nation and cornerbacks Joe Haden and Janoris Jenkins are athletic enough to keep up with Oklahoma’s deep receiving corps. Not going to call for Sam Bradford to have a Jason White ala 2004 Orange Bowl performance, but Bradford won’t have a huge game against Florida. In fact, look for other guys to star in the Oklahoma attack. Sooner receiver Ryan Broyles might fit well into the all-purpose role without Murray. He’s an often-overlooked playmaker on Oklahoma’s offense. A sleeper is sophomore running back Mossis Madu, who rushed for 115 yards in the Big 12 Championship Game during Murray’s absence. Madu matches up better with Florida’s defense than Chris Brown, who will start the game.
Florida is not going to run away, either. Oklahoma’s defense is better than people realize. The statistics are misleading because it was on the field constantly thanks to Bradford’s no-huddle attack. The Sooners were also hampered by injuries. They forced turnovers better than anyone to end the season and could win the game if safety Nic Harris gets an uncharacteristic Tebow interception. Oklahoma’s defense is fast and isn’t going to let Harvin and freshman running backs Chris Rainey and Jeffrey Demps win the game. Tebow will have to throw. He proved in the SEC Championship Game that he’s capable of doing that in big spots. And for the final reason Florida will win: Special Teams. The Gators employ one of the best units in the nation. Oklahoma has one of the worst. Florida’s Brandon James should return a punt for a touchdown easily against these guys.
One last surprise prediction: The game will feature a lower score than expected. Florida 28, Oklahoma 24.
Bowl Season Records
Against The Spread: 22-11
Straight-Up: 22-11

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