Pennsylvania Primaries
Primary Colors returns to analyze the critical Pennsylvania Democratic primary.
April 22, 2008
By Kelsey Hayes
6:22 p.m.
The polls in Pennsylvania are about 40 minutes away from closing, but CNN is going over early exit polls. Newly registered voters backed Sen. Barack Obama while late decision makers went for Sen. Hillary Clinton. Clinton is likely to do better in rural Pennsylvania, where she plays well with blue collar workers. Obama is likely to do well in large cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
This primary is a must-win for Clinton. Which seems odd to me because she's lost a lot of "must-win" primaries before and she's still here. If she loses, the pressure to withdraw will be overwhelming, if the superdelegates don't end it first. If she wins by a small margin, the race goes on and the primary will more or less be a wash. Winning big won't really help her numbers, but it could help her convince remaining superdelegates to back her.
Clinton must do well here for the main reason that few of the remaining 10 primaries and caucuses are friendly territory for her. South Carolina and states in the northwest like Montana and Oregon will likely swing for Obama. Her best chances are in Indiana and Puerto Rico.
More later when the numbers come in!
7 p.m.
CNN is not calling a winner based on the exit polls. It's impossible to know anything until solid numbers come in. If exit polls indicate a blow-out, CNN usually calls a race fairly quickly. It could be a long night.
CNN is also reporting a large number of voting irregularities, such as broken machines and no paper or provisional ballots. A lot of Republicans-turned-Democrats had a problem with their affiliation on their registrations and had to be turned away because they still showed up as Republican or as unaffiliated on their registration. This is a big problem.
7:23 p.m.
Still no solid numbers, which is curious at this point. All they have to go on are exit polls.
Black voters voted overwhelmingly for Obama, to the tune of 92 percent, a higher percentage than supported him in Ohio. The margin of white women in favor of Clinton was very high, but still similar to the Ohio numbers. White men also voted for Clinton, but by a smaller margin than voted for her in Ohio. Apparently no one of Asian, Latino or American Indian descent lives in Pennsylvania. By age, young voters (and there are a ton of them) are voting for Obama, while people older than 65 are voting for Clinton.
On the issues and social demographics, gun owners, Catholics and people for whom experience and the economy are big sellers voted for Clinton. Protestants, those favoring change and those worried about Iraq voted for Obama. Obviously a lot of these demographics overlap.
7:38 p.m.
The first votes are coming in but nothing large enough to make a call. Based on the exit polls, I'm seeing a Clinton victory by less than 10 percentage points.
8:05 p.m.
CNN is calling the primary for Clinton. I'm not too sure how wise this is, given that only 6 percent of the vote is in and Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are still out, but hey. The only question is how close it will be. Anything less than about 10 percent will pretty much have no real impact on numbers. The only thing this gives her is a bit of momentum and perhaps a stronger argument for superdelegates. However, if her winning Ohio and Texas (in the primary, anyway) didn't give her superdelegates, why should this? This is also the last 'friendly' primary Clinton will have.
Discussion
All comments are moderated by Kansan.com staff. For our full user policy, click here.
Share your 2¢
(Requires free registration.)