The Maine event
Sunday's Maine Democratic caucus caps a heavily active weekend at the polls.
February 10, 2008
By Kelsey Hayes
The Maine Democratic Caucus
3:03 p.m.
With 11 percent of the vote in, Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. Hillary Clinton, 50 percent to 48 percent.
5:29 p.m.
Obama continues to lead Clinton in Maine, 57 percent to 42 percent with 59 percent of the vote in. The final results won't be in until the last caucusing ends at around 7 p.m.
6:30 p.m.
Obama is projected to win the Maine Democratic caucus with 58 percent of the vote to Clinton's 41 percent, with 79 percent of the vote in. Obama has swept all of the weekend contests.
Weekend Wrap-Up
Republicans
At this point, it is statistically impossible for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee to catch up to Arizona Sen. John McCain in the delegate count, much less get the 1,191 delegates needed to get the nomination. Huckabee can, however, conceivably keep McCain from getting to 1,191 delegates, and use his delegates to finagle some leverage (like a vice presidential spot). In all likelihood, McCain will eventually get enough delegates to get the nomination; it just might take a little longer. Huckabee, who clearly appeals more to social movement conservatives, could still end up on the ticket to shore up McCain’s support on the right.
Democrats
Note to the Clinton campaign: Caucuses still count, and no one cares if Obama was “expected” to win in these contests. It’s a line that will be repeated often for the rest of February, as Obama is favored in most of the month’s remaining caucuses and primaries. It looks like the Clinton campaign is more or less conceding most of the remaining contests until March 4, when they’ll pray like hell for Ohio and Texas.
On the one hand, it’s savvy of Clinton to know not to waste resources on states where her chances are slim. On the other, fortune favors momentum, and it’ll be hard to pick up in March if Obama continues to sweep. Rudy Giuliani had almost this exact same strategy in Florida, and got trounced. Texas could also pose a potential problem for Clinton. Its primary is open, meaning that independents and Republicans could show up to vote in the Democratic primary. Clinton has no trouble when contests are party-restricted; if outsiders can come in, Texas might be dicey. Both candidates have a little over 1,000 delegates, roughly half of what they need to pull off the nomination. Clinton currently leads Obama, but only when superdelegates are counted.
Clinton's campaign manager, Patti Solis Doyle, is stepping down to take a less-active role in her organization. Maggie Williams, a long-time adviser, is taking over as campaign manager. This reshuffling is at least a little indicative of anxiety within the campaign; if everything was going well, there'd be no need for a change. I have to notice that Clinton has seemed a little off-kilter since Super Tuesday, when she won major states like New York and California. I wonder if she thought the nomination would be sewed up at that point, negating the need to focus on states like Louisiana (where she ran no ads) and Virginia. Whatever the reasoning, the Clinton campaign switch-up is reason to buzz.
Up Next
Tuesday, Feb. 12, the Democrats and Republicans both hold primaries in Washington DC, Maryland and Virginia. Of these states, Virginia will likely be the most competitive on both sides.
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