Tarheels & Hoosiers: The May 6 Primaries
North Carolina and Indiana voters make their decisions.
May 6, 2008
By Kelsey Hayes
The (Very) Early Word
Voters are showing up early, so so am I.
The New York Times reports heavy early-morning voter turnout in North Carolina, and large turnouts in both rural and suburban Indiana. High turnout in rural areas is usually good news for Sen. Hillary Clinton, while IU students are standing on street corners near their campuses waving "Honk for Hope" signs for Sen. Barack Obama
Obama has been leading in North Carolina, while Indiana has been a virtual tie. The Indianapolis Star endorsed Clinton.
We're nearing the end of the road of primary season. West Virginia will hold its primary on May 13, while Nebraska will hold its Republican primary that day as well (Sen John McCain locked up his nomination long ago). Kentucky and Oregon vote on May 20, followed by Idaho's Republican primary on May 27, and finally Montana, South Dakota and New Mexico on June 3. That's it.
DNC Chairman Howard Dean has said he'd like for superdelegates to make up their minds before June. Good luck. At this point, the Democratic Party will be lucky if the Denver convention doesn't turn into the nightmare of the 1968 convention in Chicago.
In other news, Obama has won the Guam caucus by seven votes. Not seven percent. Seven. Votes.
More later tonight when the results come in...
3:03 p.m.
The last polls close in a little less than three hours, but CNN's claiming to be ready to analyze exit polls shortly. If a race is a rout, CNN will make a call based on the exit polls. If CNN refuses to call a candidate based on exit polls, the race is usually extremely close.
What do each of the candidates need? Obama needs a strong, double-digit win in North Carolina, and needs to either win in Indiana, or lose by a margin of less than 5 percent. Clinton's people say that she's expected to lose in North Carolina, but she can't do so by more than 5 percent. It'd be a great boon for her to win big in Indiana. Clinton is obviously in a more dire situation than Obama because of her almost insurmountable deficit in pledged delegates.
5:01 p.m.
Most of the Indiana polls have just closed. Data should be coming in soon...
Exit poll numbers are coming in. The Rev. Wright issue is 'important' for less than half of Indiana voters; 48 percent to 49 percent of voters who say it isn't. How this will affect the race, I don't know. It's possible for an Obama fan to vote for him despite the Wright concerns, while a Clinton supporter might not think of Wright as being important. More telling, Obama appears to have beat out Clinton in North Carolina on the issue of the economy. Clinton beat Obama in Indiana on the same issue, but by a far narrower margin than she has been (9 percentage points in Indiana versus 18 percentage points in her Ohio victory).
Basically, the economy could be a wash tonight. It looks like it might come down to demographics. Clinton needs to make inroads with blacks, while Obama must make progress with white blue-collar workers.
Here's an interesting exit poll. In both states, voters in exit polls said that Clinton ran a more negative campaign. The majority of voters in both states, in contrast, didn't think that Obama ran a negative campaign.
5:43 p.m.
More exit poll numbers. It's far too early to call a winner, but the demographic polls are interesting nonetheless. Obama received 92 percent of the black vote in Indiana, and 91 percent in North Carolina. They haven't given numbers on whites or women, but I imagine Clinton won those.
All of the talking heads on CNN said that if Clinton loses both states, she needs to bow out. If she wins Indiana and gets pummeled in North Carolina, it'd be impossible to catch up. If she wins both states, she has a far more compelling case for undecided superdelegates, but the math still isn't really there. There are only about 400 or so pledged delegates left, with almost half of those up for grabs tonight. If neither Clinton nor Obama make big gains tonight, the numbers just aren't there in the remaining contests.
Clinton is currently doing very well in Indiana, with most of the rural counties going her way. The college cities of Bloomington, Indianapolis and Muncie will be interesting to see, as will the Chicago suburbs.
The last polls in Indiana (12 counties are still out) have closed. Just a little while longer for North Carolina.
6 p.m.
Polls are closed in the remaining Indiana counties. CNN says Indiana's too close to call. Here we go!
Indiana numbers are coming in faster now. Clinton still has a fairly comfortable lead, but more counties are coming in for Obama. Nothing from North Carolina yet; probably another 45 minutes or so before any major data comes in.
6:30 p.m.
CNN is calling North Carolina for Obama based on the exit polls. No solid numbers yet, but it'd have to be a pretty wide margin (10 or more percentage points) for them to call it this early.
Indiana is still out. Clinton is still doing well, but Indianapolis, Bloomington and the northwestern counties (the Chicago suburbs) are still out.
7:56 p.m.
Still no call on Indiana. About 65 percent of the vote's in, but Indianapolis, Gary and Bloomington are still mostly out. The gap is closing steadily, though (it was 8 percentage points in Clinton's favor; it's now down to 6). Clinton's strong areas are already fully reported or close to being fully reported. The remaining 35 percent or so of votes are coming in from Obama strongholds. Less than half of the Indianapolis vote is in, where Obama is enjoying a double-digit percentage point lead. Obama is beating Clinton by over 25 percentage points in North Carolina.
Apparently Indiana implemented a new voter ID law today. Voters were required to show a state-issued government ID to vote. Apparently several people, including college students and nuns, were turned away. I seriously have to wonder if this voter ID requirement is even constitutional.
CBS is calling Indiana for Clinton and it's probably pretty accurate. I just wonder if they know something we don't, or if they wanted to be the first network to call it. CNN, ABC, Fox and NBC are still holding out, but Obama would have to blow her out in the remaining missing counties in order to catch up. I expect them to wait for the numbers to come in, but I do think that Clinton will emerge as the winner. The question will be by how many percentage points, and whether it's by a large enough margin to make a dent in the delegate count.
8:25 p.m.
With 71 percent of the vote in, Clinton's lead has narrowed to 4 percentage points. CBS is still the only network calling the state for her.
John King is playing with his 'flying pie charts' on CNN. Indianapolis is almost entirely in. Obama is still down by about 35,000 votes. The county that contains Gary, Lake County, is still completely out, and that seems to be the clincher one way or the other. Gary is a Chicago suburb in the northwest, and has a large black population. It also has about 8 percent of the state's population. There are only a few counties left to go; two in the northwest (which are expected to go to Obama) and two or three more to the south, which could go either way. Once the numbers come in from Gary, the final decision should be made.
9:09 p.m.
I'm wondering where the hell Gary is. 83 percent of the vote's in, the margin is holding steady at 4 percent, and Gary, Ind., is nowhere to be found.
The AP is reporting that there are over 11,300 absentee ballots left in Lake County that must come in before final results will be released. It all depends on voter turnout and whether the Chicago proximity had any effect. There must be a fairly significant number of votes in Lake County or else they wouldn't be waiting for it.
Clinton is addressing her supporters in Indianapolis now. The pundits on CNN are almost universally calling the primary season all but over. Clinton might well win in West Virginia next week, but Oregon and Montana will almost certainly go to Obama. Kentucky is a toss-up. Fact is, short of an 11th hour miracle involving seating the Michigan and Florida delegates as-is (if they're seated at all, the DNC won't use the skewed primary results) or a mass exodus of superdelegates (unlikely), there is no way Clinton can come back. Obama is within a little more than 200 delegates of clinching the nomination. Following the last straggling primaries, he'll be even closer. Neither can do it with pledged delegates, but Clinton's loss in North Carolina and what will probably turn out to be a very narrow win in Indiana won't do much to convince party leaders. There's nowhere left to go for delegates, and at this point, I have to say that she's only prolonging the inevitable.
If she manages to pull through in Indiana — and it looks like she will — then it's her prerogative to stay in the race. If, however, Lake County somehow holds a treasure trove of Obama votes and the contest ends up an Obama victory (unlikely) or a deadlock (looking likelier), then Clinton should do the honorable thing and concede.
10:05 p.m.
It could be midnight before Lake County is completely in. Obama would need to maintain his edges in Bloomington (where he is running strongly and where there is still a hefty number of votes left to be counted) and win in Lake County with between 58-60 percent of the vote. Unlikely, but any chips he can make in Clinton's lead (still only by 4 percentage points) will help.
10:45 p.m.
Finally! With 28 percent of Lake County's numbers in, Obama is leading 75 percent to Clinton's 25 percent in the county. The overall state lead for Clinton is down to 2 percentage points. If Obama can hold that lead (and there's no way of knowing where the Lake County votes came from, Gary or another city), the night will get more interesting.
11:31 p.m.
Still nothing except that initial 28 percent out of Lake County. And now I swear that John King is just playing around with the map settings when he thinks the camera isn't on him.
11:39 p.m.
With 56 percent of Lake County's votes in and 95 percent of all state votes reporting, Clinton's lead is down to less than 17,000 votes statewide. Virtually every other county is at 98 or 99 percent of districts reported. The remaining 44 percent of Lake County's votes will decide the state. It's important to note that this state will, from a delegate perspective, end up in a virtual tie. However, it is still important from a psychological perspective to have a 'win' in a state. Hence why pundits are dissecting the minutiae of voting patterns.
I've read through every major news site and blog. Some people say Clinton will prevail. A fellow on ABC News came up with the figure that Obama would win by 5,000 votes. 40 percent of the vote is still out and some of the absentee votes probably won't be counted until tomorrow morning. So, I'm off to bed. If anything happens before I fall asleep, I'll post it.
And now Wolf Blitzer is trying to interrogate the mayor of Gary on why the hell it's taking so damn long to count votes when every other county was done hours ago. Another mayor (who's pro-Clinton) said it's unfortunate for the county to turn votes in late because it gives the impression of 'improper' conduct. Ah, drama.
12:12 a.m.
The rest of the vote's in, and it looks like Clinton will squeak by in Indiana with 51 percent of the vote to Obama's 49 percent. A win is a win is a win, and Clinton has it. I'd still be worried if I were her; she's meeting with superdelegates tomorrow and she doesn't really have that strong of a case to bring to them. But ah, for tonight at least, it's over. Bedtime!
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