Senate deliberations and non-binding resolutions exert little influence on Iraqi militias. Unfortunately, domestic American politics do affect United States foreign policy toward Iraq. The permanent presidential campaign compels America’s most powerful leaders to advocate shallow solutions to Iraq’s very complicated problems. Republican pledges to achieve victory belie a complete misunderstanding of Iraq’s deteriorating political dynamics, while Democrats’ various withdrawal plans reflect trends in internal polling more than Iraq’s devolving situation. The time for an effective American policy in Iraq is quickly running out, and the country can ill afford to let the accelerating partisanship of the presidential campaign preclude a thoughtful strategy for Iraq. A surge in American troops cannot address Iraq’s political dysfunction, but a quick withdrawal would leave thousands of Iraqi civilians to the mercy of sectarian militias and Islamic fundamentalists. The only viable role left for the US military is to facilitate Iraq’s inevitable partition. Prominent politicians ought to focus on good policy rather than winning politics.

The United State cannot sustain the status quo. The Dick Cheney May 2005 claim that the Iraqi insurgency was in “its last throws” was not only demonstrably false, but underscores the White House’s misinterpretation of events in Iraq. There has never been a singular insurgency for coalition forces to fight. Instead, various ethnic and religious sects have sought to violently protect their own narrow interests, united only in the belief that the United States was blocking their rightful place at the seat of power. Throwing 20,000 more troops at the problem can only increase resentment against the American occupation at a time when polls show an overwhelming majority of Iraqis of all sects want US troops to leave.

Iraqi polls, however, cannot dictate US foreign policy. Iraqis may tell pollsters that they want the foreigners to leave their country, but an immediate withdrawal would give free reign to the violent sectarians controlling the militias. American troops are currently the only obstacle to an even worse disaster in Iraq than the one now on our hands. An immediate withdrawal would unleash a hellish failed state that would demand later American intervention. The left would support a mission to end the resulting genocide (think Darfur, but with 10 more sects), while the right would clamor for a mission to root out the inevitable growth of al-Qaeda.

An unending American presence in Iraq is as untenable as a hasty withdrawal, though, which is why overseeing a partition is the only viable role for American troops in Iraq. Several astute observers have recently noted that anarchic partition is already occurring in the status quo. Traditionally mixed neighborhoods in Baghdad and around the country are gradually, and violently, segregating themselves into Sunni and Shia districts. Northern Kurdistan is already a semi-autonomous and relatively stable state anyway, but deserves protection from the spreading unrest to its south. An external force can protect the civilians fleeing sectarian strife while ensuring a reasonably equitable distribution of resources.

A split Iraq is hardly the beacon of democracy President Bush promised in 2003. Partition risks greater intervention by Iran in the Shiite areas and Saudi Arabia in the Sunni zone. An officially independent Kurdistan could inspire Kurdish factions in Turkey to resume their rebellion, potentially provoking a hard-line response from Ankara. Yet the Iraqis themselves are more concerned with their families’ safety than the geopolitical ramifications of their movements, making partition an inevitable outcome. American politicians need to formulate policy based on these conditions and not on partisan pandering. By offering a political resolution to Iraq’s problems, partition frees American troops from policing a civil war and offers them a clearly-defined and short term mission. It is not the perfect answer to Iraq’s troubles, but to think that such a solution exists echoes the hubris that motivated the Iraqi misadventure in the first place.

Andrew MacDonald, Overland Park junior