Final Four breakdown

Four No. 1 seeds meet in tournament for the first time in history

North Carolina (36-2)

Chapel Hill, N.C.

Final Fours: 17

NCAA Championships: four (1957, 1982, 1993, 2005)

Famous Alumni: Michael Jordan, former U.S. Sen. John Edwards, President James K. Polk

How they got here:

First round: defeated Mount St. Mary’s 113-74

Second round: defeated Arkansas 108-77

Sweet Sixteen: defeated Washington State 68-47

Elite Eight: defeated Louisville 83-73

Breakdown:

How good has North Carolina been this tournament? So good, that Russell Robinson felt the need to turn away from the screen while watching the Tar Heels dismantle Louisville in the Elite Eight. Robinson didn’t need to see that.

In his fifth season at North Carolina, Roy Williams’ team is 36-2, yet still doesn’t have the best record at the Final Four – that belongs to 37-1 Memphis. The Tar Heels, who have won 15 games in a row, braved injuries this season. Reserve guard, junior Bobby Frasor, was lost for the season to an ACL tear in December, and starting point guard, sophomore Ty Lawson missed seven games in the middle of the season after suffering a left ankle sprain. Pity the Tar Heels? Hardly. The Tar Heels are deep, talented, and poised to deliver Williams his second title in four years.

Two reasons they will unlock the trophy case:

1. Tyler Hansbrough – They don’t call North Carolina’s junior power forward “Psycho-T” because he likes Snapple. Hansbrough, the likely National Player of the Year, is relentless, and no doubt, the craziest player in San Antonio.

2. Coaching – Kansas’ Bill Self, UCLA’s Ben Howland and Memphis’ John Calipari are all coaches capable of leading a team to a title. But Williams is the only coach who’s cut down the nets at the Final Four.

Two reasons they will not:

1. Defense – If it’s true that defense win championships, then you might not want to go with the Tar Heels. They give up 72.2 points per game, partly because they play real fast, but Roy Williams’ coached teams have always been vulnerable to teams that play at a slow pace.

2. Karma – You’d have to think the “college basketball gods” have a sense of humor. What could be funnier than Williams going down to Kansas on Saturday night?

Memphis (37-1)

Memphis, Tenn.

Final Fours: 2

NCAA Championships: None

Famous Alumni: former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson, NFL player Isaac Bruce,

How they got here:

First round: defeated Texas-Arlington 87-63

Second round: defeated Mississippi State 77-74

Sweet Sixteen: defeated Michigan State 92-74

Elite Eight: defeated Texas 85-67

Breakdown:

Come on, admit it, you weren’t expecting Memphis to steamroll Texas 85-67 in the South Regional final. The Tigers — a group that seemed to be everyone’s choice to be the No. 1 seed that would lose first – are laughing all the way to San Antonio.

Has there ever been a team more disrespected than Memphis? At 37-1, the Tigers have already tied the all-time NCAA Division I record for victories. Still, some prognosticators figured Memphis was simply a mirage generated by a weak Conference-USA schedule. Well, the Tigers went out and decimated Michigan State and Texas in Regional Semi-Finals and Finals in Houston and weak conference or not, the Tigers look like a team that could win it all. Led by junior shooting guard Chris Douglas-Roberts and freshman point guard Derrick Rose, coach John Calipari’s squad is outrageously athletic and playing like a team that knows it’s being doubted.

Two reasons they will unlock the trophy case:

1. Point guard play – Memphis freshman Derrick Rose, a would-be member of the “I look 10 years older than I am” club, has always been a athletic specimen. Now, Rose is playing like a pure point guard. His assist to turnover ratio is 4.7-to-1 during the NCAA tourmament and he’s still scoring 24 points per game in the last two rounds.

2. They’re overlooked – If any of these teams has the proverbial “chip on its shoulder,” it’s Memphis. Kansas, UCLA and North Carolina are basketball institutions, while Memphis is relatively new to the Final Four scene. Never underestimate a team that feels overlooked.

Two reasons they will not:

1. The big guys– While the other three teams all have post-players averaging double-figures, Memphis does not. If Rose and Douglas-Roberts perform poorly, Memphis might be in trouble.

2. The supporting cast – Want to know how to beat Memphis? Ask Tennessee. The Volunteers beat Memphis at Memphis on Feb. 23. How’d they do it? They let Douglas-Roberts and Rose score, and stopped everybody else. Douglas-Roberts and Rose had 14 and 23 points respectively, while the rest of the team finished with 25 points. If Memphis wants the title, they need to be more balanced.

UCLA (36-3)

Los Angeles, Calif.

Final Fours: 18

NCAA Championships: 11

Famous Alumni: actor Tim Robbins, singer Jim Morrison

How they got here:

First round: defeated Miss. Valley State 70-29

Second round: defeated Texas A&M 51-49

Sweet Sixteen: defeated Western Kentucky 88-78

Elite Eight: defeated Xavier 76-57

Breakdown:

What’s UCLA coach Ben Howland’s favorite part about his team’s third straight Final Four appearance? Florida is nowhere to be seen. The Gators eliminated UCLA in the last two Final Fours, beating them in the Championship game in 2006 and in the National Semifinal last season. Howland’s second favorite part about this year’s Final Four? He now has Kevin Love. UCLA’s freshman center is a first-team All-American and he’s owned this year’s tournament – averaging 24 points and 12 rebounds per game in victories against Western Kentucky and Xavier. Howlands’ Bruins were ousted the last two years because Florida’s big guys – Joakim Noah and Al Horford – controlled the inside. Now Howland has his own wide body inside, and Love and Howland just may deliver title No. 12 to Tinseltown.

Two reasons they will unlock the trophy case:

1. Experience – Some pundits would have you believe that all the Bruins need is Love – as in Kevin Love. But UCLA’s most important player might be junior point guard Darren Collison. He’s averaging 14.8 points per game and shooting 53.0 percent from the three-point line. Need a refresher? Cue up Kansas’ Elite Eight game against UCLA last season and press “play.”

2. Defense – One reason North Carolina might not win this weekend, is the same reason UCLA might. Ben Howland stresses defense and the Bruins generally listen. UCLA has surrendered 80 points only once this season, against California, and its opponents are scoring 58.5 points per game.

Two reasons they will not:

1. Luck runs out – To say the Bruins have been beneficiaries of some controversial calls, is a little like saying fried food is bad for you — both statements are painfully obvious. Don’t follow? Well, then you must not have seen the last play of the UCLA – Texas A&M game in the second round. The point? UCLA has been catching breaks from officials and eventually things may even out.

2. Conference history – The Pac-10 hasn’t had a basketball National Champion since Arizona in 1997. Every other major conference, besides the Big 12, which hasn’t won a title since 1988, has won a title since the Pac-10’s last championship.

Kansas (35-3)

Lawrence, Kan.

Final Fours: 13

NCAA Championships: two

Famous Alumni: former Sen. Bob Dole, actor Paul Rudd, NFL running back Gale Sayers

How they got here:

First round: defeated Portland State 85-61

Second round: defeated UNLV 75-56

Sweet Sixteen: defeated Villanova 72-57

Elite Eight: defeated Davidson 59-57

Breakdown:

The question was posed to Kansas senior forward Darnell Jackson. Will Kansas be satisfied by just making it to the Final Four? Jackson paused. He didn’t quite follow. The question was re-phrased. Jackson’s answer was clearer than the question: No. Kansas’ goal all season has been the National Championship. Kansas’ motivation shouldn’t be a problem. The real problem might be that Kansas simply doesn’t have the ammunition to battle its way through a gauntlet of a Final Four. Four number one seeds. For the first time ever. Who ever wins this thing should be applauded. You could make the case Kansas got off easy with its road to the Final Four. A No. 16 seed, a No. 8 seed, a No. 12 seed, and a No. 10. Not many world-beaters on that road. Still, if Kansas maneuvers its way to the Trophy ceremony on Monday night, nobody can question the Jayhawks easy early-round schedule. Maybe junior guard Brandon Rush will even be standing on the platform, channeling his inner Aqib Talib, and shouting, “They gotta say we played somebody now, They gotta say we played somebody.”

Two reasons they will unlock the trophy case:

1. It’s Destiny – All the stars seemed to have aligned. It’s been 20 years since Kansas’ last title, the star of that team, Danny Manning, is now on the Kansas sideline, and the fans get a revenge game against Roy Williams along the way. Hollywood couldn’t write this stuff.

2. Balance – Florida had it while winning the last two national titles. The Jayhawks do too. Seven players who could lead the team in scoring any given game. Want to stop Kansas? Pick three or four guys to stop and the other three or four guys will probably step up.

Two reasons they will not:

1. Balance ­— Confused? Well, Bill Self said it best on Tuesday. Kansas’ greatest strength might be its biggest weakness as well. Who’s Kansas’ go-to-guy? Well, we don’t know. The lack of a go-to scorer in crunch time might haunt the Jayhawks this weekend.

2. Do the Math – Kansas has won two national championships in the past 56 years – 1952 and 1988. Can Kansas win the title on Monday night? Sure. Is it likely? Unfortunately not.

 

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