Race for the Big 12 title

The Kansan predicts who the winner and runner-ups will be

By Mark Dent, Rustin Dodd

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

And they’re off.

The race for the Big 12 title has reached the halfway point for some teams. Kansas (7-1) is on top, ahead of K-State (5-1). The Wildcats beat the Jayhawks last week, but Kansas is ahead because it has played two more games.

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Kevin Grunwald

Two weeks ago, when Kansas was dominating conference foes, it would seem like a guarantee that the Jayhawks could win both of those games. Now, who knows? Kansas needs to increase its defensive pressure to return to its fold form.

The rest of the group isn’t too far behind. Texas is in third at 4-2. Baylor has an identical record, but the Longhorns hold the tiebreaker over the Bears. Texas A&M (4-3) and Oklahoma (3-3) round out the top six.

“If I’m not mistaken there’s two teams with one loss, and several with two,” Kansas coach Bill Self said. “So, it’s going to get interesting.”

Self is probably right about that. All of the teams in the top six are solid and have opportunities to finish in first. You couldn’t say that last year. A season ago, Kansas, Texas A&M and Texas were significantly better than everyone. They finished at least two games ahead of the nearest competitor.

Now, the competition level has risen. Oklahoma and Kansas State have rode top freshmen to get to their spot near the top. Baylor has just slowly improved under the direction of coach Scott Drew. Those three teams, along with Kansas, Texas A&M and Texas, make the conference better than it has been since 2003, when two Big 12 teams made the Final Four. The improvement in the league can be seen in its RPI. The Big 12 is the third ranked conference in those ratings, which play a major role in getting in the NCAA Tournament.

With all the competition and parity, there is not a clear-cut favorite to win the conference. That’s why The Kansan is trying to predict what will happen. Here are the odds of each team winning the Big 12.

1. Kansas (22-1, 7-1)

Odds - 1:2

Brandon Rush acknowledged that Kansas caught a big break when Kansas State lost to Missouri on Saturday. He was right.

Now, Kansas has the best opportunity of any team to win the Big 12. The Jayhawks have four big games left on the schedule. They play Baylor at home, at Texas, at Texas A&M and against K-State at home. Kansas needs to beat the Wildcats to nullify the tiebreaker they currently own. The Jayhawks should also win against Texas or Texas A&M to seal their spot on top of the Big 12.

Two weeks ago, when Kansas was dominating conference foes, it would seem like a guarantee that the Jayhawks could win both of those games. Now, who knows? Kansas needs to increase its defensive pressure to return to its fold form. If the Jayhawks do that, they’ll win the Big 12.

2. Texas (17-4, 4-2)

Odds - 3:1

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These Big 12 teams should just start planning for next year.

7. Texas Tech—Pat Knight is no Bob Knight.

8. Missouri—Maybe Mike Anderson should suspend more players. It seems like his team plays better that way.

9. Nebraska—The Huskers have won two straight and don’t have to worry about playing Kansas again.

10. Iowa State—The Cyclones will still be tough to play in Ames.

11. Oklahoma State—Sean Sutton is definitely no Eddie Sutton.

12. Colorado—The Buffaloes are getting better, but they still don’t have a chance this year.

Believe it or not, the Texas Longhorns have been flying under the radar. With Kansas’ 20-0 start, K-State’s resurgence and Baylor’s improbable turnaround, Texas has been the forgotten team during the last two weeks. Part of that is the Longhorns own fault, of course. Texas was pummeled 97-84 at Missouri in its first conference game, and they didn’t show up against Texas A&M either, losing 80-63. But don’t forget, this is a team that won at UCLA and beat Tennessee by 19 points. Their schedule is daunting. They host Kansas and Texas A&M, and travel to Oklahoma, Kansas State and Baylor. Yikes. Fortunately, Texas sophomore D.J. Augustin might be the best player in the Big 12 not named Michael Beasley. The silky sophomore is averaging 19.9 points per game and passes the ball to teammates. If Texas can win on the road, and beat K-State in Manhattan, they’ll be sitting in second place in the Big 12 by season’s end.

3. Kansas State (15-5, 5-1)

Odds - 3.5:1

After Kansas lost to the Wildcats last week, Bill Self said K-State was in the “driver’s seat” for the Big 12 title. Not anymore.

K-State shouldn’t have lost to Missouri last week. For one, the Tigers were playing at less than full strength. Plus, Mizzou is just not that good. The loss moved the Wildcats to second place, where they currently reside. Now they face a big challenge to get back into first.

Their upcoming schedule includes three major games at Baylor, at Kansas and at home against Texas. K-State also has to play Iowa State and Nebraska on the road. Neither of those games will be easy, either. To win the conference, the Wildcats would probably have to beat Kansas and only lose one other game the rest of the way. That’s probably not going to happen.

4. Texas A&M (18-4, 4-3)

Odds - 5:1

First year head coach and former Kansas Jayhawk, Mark Turgeon, has had a chaotic first season in College Station, Texas. The Aggies started 15-1, and Aggie fans were already starting to forget the name of Billy Gillispie – the former Texas A&M coach who moved to Kentucky in the offseason. The honeymoon was short-lived. Texas A&M started 1-3 in the Big 12, including a five-overtime loss to Baylor, and Turgeon started getting testy. “I’m in a no-flipping-win situation this year, and that puts me in a bad mood,” Turgeon said to the hometown reporters after his rocky start.

“I’ve got no chance this year. If we win, it’s because of Gillispie. If we lose, it’s because of Mark Turgeon. So I can’t win,” he said.

Fortunately for the Aggies, things have calmed down a bit, and Texas A&M has won three straight. The Aggies still have important road games at Texas and Baylor and a home matchup with Kansas, but they should be able to settle in and make the NCAA tournament with a fourth place Big 12 finish.

5. Oklahoma (15-6, 3-3)

Odds - 8:1

Blake Griffin’s knee injury couldn’t have come at a better time.

The Oklahoma freshman forward hurt his knee during a loss to Kansas. The Sooners would have probably lost the game even if he was healthy. Then, it got even better. Oklahoma happened to have its bye week, where it only played one game in a 12-day period. The Sooners won that game, and then Griffin returned to beat Baylor. Oklahoma’s lucky schedule kept it in the thick of the Big 12 race.

The Sooners probably won’t win the conference, but they have a great opportunity to finish in the top four. But to do that, they have to beat Texas at home tonight. This is a big game. Oklahoma has to play Texas and Texas Tech on the road later and winning home games is an absolute must to do well in this conference.

6. Baylor (16-4 , 4-2)

Odds - 20:1

Welcome to relevance Baylor. The Bears have been the “biggest surprise that’s not really a surprise” in Big 12 history. Coach Scott Drew has been molding this team together for years – it just took a while for people to notice. Baylor has one solid Big 12 victory, against Texas A&M in five overtimes. The other three came against Iowa State, Nebraska and Oklahoma State. Baylor still has to play Kansas, Texas and Oklahoma on the road. They also have home games against K-State and Texas A&M. If Baylor can win two of those games, Drew would probably be happy – although he probably wouldn’t admit that.

Who are these Bears? Well, start by getting to know junior guard Curtis Jerrells, because if Baylor makes the NCAA tournament, Jerrells might become a household name.

—Edited by Russell Davies

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