Wednesday, March 12, 2008
College basketball’s conference tournament season has begun, so I don’t get outside to enjoy the weather much these days. No big deal. My TV tells me March has arrived.
Basketball analysts have started pulling out the platitudes, trumpeting intangibles such as ‘grit’ and ‘determination’ and tossing around vague terms like ‘veteran leadership.’
Expert A believes Villanova will succeed in March because its players are ‘tough-minded.’ Expert B likes the Kentucky Wildcats better — after all, they’ve displayed ‘tremendous heart’ this season!
But what if intangibles — namely experience — really do play a part in March’s madness?
College basketball statistics Web site www.kenpom.com computes the average number of years of experience on each team’s roster. If age has as great a correlation to success as the analysts say it does, the numbers should serve as an easy way to handicap this month’s conference and NCAA tournaments.
The statistics say the Big 12 is a very young conference. Kansas is the league’s most experienced team but ranks just 51st nationally. Texas A&M and Oklahoma are in the middle of the conference’s pack in terms of age but are around the 35th percentile of teams across the country.
The stats also show very little connection between regular season success and experience. Although Kansas is both the conference’s top-ranked team and its oldest, bottom-feeders such as Missouri and Colorado are in the top five when ranked in order of basketball maturity. Texas and Kansas State, two of the league’s top three teams, sit at the bottom of the Big 12’s experience ladder.
Similar inconsistencies appear in the nationwide data. Of the top 10 most battle-tested teams, only one — Washington State — is in line for an at-large NCAA Tournament berth. Several teams with respectable résumés, such as Florida, Syracuse and USC, are among the five youngest squads in the nation (out of 341 teams).
Bottom line, there isn’t any reason to assume a veteran team holds an edge over a group of youngsters. Kansas State freshman forwards Michael Beasley and Bill Walker proved that when they dismantled an upperclassmen-heavy Kansas team in January.
Colorado proved it when it finished last in the Big 12 despite having three seniors in its starting lineup. The makeup of the All-Big 12 first team reinforces the point: two freshmen, two sophomores, two juniors, and no seniors.
Who knows? Maybe the wisdom of experience does pay dividends come tourney time. Perhaps veteran-laced Colorado simply spent the conference season purposely gliding under the radar at 3-13. Could Texas Tech be gearing up for a furious run through March on the shoulders of the seniors that lost by 58 points at Allen Fieldhouse?
The age numbers don’t bode well for Kansas State and Texas, but the teams’ résumés speak for themselves. Kansas State struggled down the stretch but snared 10 victories in one of the nation’s top three conferences, and it’s unlikely a freshman sensation like Beasley is going to turn into a pumpkin when the clock hits midnight and the postseason begins. On top of dispatching Kansas and Kansas State in conference play, Texas defeated probable No. 1 seeds UCLA and Tennessee away from home.
Sure, older teams can fare well. Much of Kansas’ success stems from its stellar senior class and an ultra-talented batch of juniors. Last season’s Florida team got most of its minutes from seniors and took home the national championship.
The analysts love seniors and can’t get enough of players who have honed their basketball IQ over the years. But March isn’t all about smarts. March — and every other month on the college basketball calendar — is all about talent.
— Edited by Daniel Reyes
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