I must begin by calling myself out on my penchant for calling EAST Carolina “Eastern Carolina” in Monday’s column.
What I actually meant was…ah forget it. It was a boneheaded mistake and not a very good start to sounding like a genius in my pick for a Jayhawks-Pirates BCS clash.
But maybe Kansas can save my ass this week. I’m banking on it.
I also had every intention to continue this newspaper’s and my own crusade to criticize the Jayhawks running game heading into tomorrow’s trip to No. 19 AP/No. 18 USA Today South Florida – the first test and real start of Kansas’ season.
Instead I have just one wish from Mark Mangino’s squad: score enough points however you can to put away the Bulls on national television.
Mangino may be modest in his expectations, but tomorrow night’s game – 7 p.m., ESPN2 – will be much of the nation’s first look at Kansas football since January’s Orange Bowl. A loss would do wonders in discrediting the Jayhawks in the minds of many who don’t respect them much in the first place.
I’ve been dwelling on Kansas’ inept ground game before, during and after most others have focused on it because I have a feeling South Florida will again force offensive coordinator Ed Warinner to abandon the run and dictate that the Jayhawk offense travel exclusivelythrough the air.
My chief concern has been that one-dimensional offenses typically don’t cut it for 3.5 point underdogs on the road in non-conference games against ranked opponents.
It is puzzling why both FIU and Louisiana Tech insisted on focusing much of their defense on the run in Kansas’ first two contests, daring Todd Reesing to slice and dice them through the air. Maybe they forgot to study the tape on Reesing. Or maybe they knew it was a lost cause to try and stop him.
Expect more airing it out from Kansas in Tampa, Fla., tomorrow. I do and I am perfectly fine with it.
In an effort to avoid Monday’s factual error debacle and restore my credibility, I decided to dive full bore into some heavy research. I began by looking at the ratio of run and pass plays so far by teams in the Top-25 and the top teams in the final 2007 polls.
Here’s what I found:
• Through two games, Kansas has attempted 90 passes to 69 run plays – one of just six AP Top-25 teams to attempt more passes than runs. The usual suspects round out the rest of that group, including two teams Kansas will meet this year, Missouri (five more pass plays) and Texas Tech (57 more pass plays).
• The AP Poll’s final 2007 rankings also saw just six teams attempt more pass plays. One of that six was the lone blemish on Kansas’ 12-1 season: Missouri, who attempted 52 more pass plays than running plays.
• At the pro level, according to ESPN.com’s power rankings, seven of the top 10 teams passed more than ran last week and one team attempted an equal number of both. The last two Super Bowl champs passed 118 and 135 more times than they ran respectively.
Basically, in the NCAA, more teams attempt more runs than passes. But also more teams lose or don’t advance to bowl games than do. Only one team wins the national championship while 118 teams do not.
And here’s a stat I didn’t even look up: championship teams make it to the big game by scoring more points than their opponents. Duh, right?
Then why are we worried about Kansas’ offense?
Because it is imbalanced and they are playing a strong defensive team with a good offense to boot on the road tomorrow.
Yet there is no reason to suspect that when South Florida’s All America junior defensive end George Selvie or senior linebacker Tyrone McKenzie stuff a Jayhawk running back that Reesing won’t find Dezmon Briscoe or Daymond Patterson for a long touchdown on the ensuing play.
Reesing is by far Kansas’ best offensive player. Even if they had a more balanced offense, I wouldn’t expect anyone else to shoulder the load when it matters.
Kansas’ backfield may even improve tomorrow. Mangino has said he’ll be looking to junior Angus Quigley much earlier – Quigley leads the team in rushing yards (131) and average (6.2) and Jocques Crawford will get another chance at adding to his goal of 2,000 yards. Jake Sharp is clearly a complementary back and Kansas knows this.
But until Kansas’ ground game proves fatal or until Reesing throws his shoulder out, I’m content with 50 pass attempts versus 30 rushes if it results in a win.
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