Tuesday, April 21, 2009
The annual coverage and analysis of the NFL Draft is always good for a few laughs and the realization that yes, we all could be doing worse at our jobs.
In a ritual of high comedy, draft “experts” tirelessly scout college players and devote obscene amounts of time compiling mock drafts. Some go as far as projecting every pick in the seven-round draft. And after they fail miserably — ESPN’s draft “guru” Mel Kiper Jr. successfully foretold just seven of the 31 first round selections in 2008 — they inexplicably return to grade each team’s draft class.
How stupid do they think we are? Well, we actually are plenty stupid. After all, we are responsible for the growth of the mock draft industry from a select few to hundreds of professional reporters and couch-potato bloggers. Kansas City Star sports columnist Joe Posnanski pored over 200 mock drafts last weekend. He may not recover.
Among the forecasts he read was a $19.95(!) Pro Football Weekly magazine. Several other media outlets also charge for their draft forecast content. For $5-20, predictions that have never been remotely accurate and never will be can be had by all.
Coldhardfootballfacts.com analyzed the predictions of six “experts” for last year’s first round and found that the group — including Kiper, Fox Sports’ Jay Glazer and Scouts Inc.’s Todd McShay — had just a 19.9 percent success rate. After taking a closer look, it discovered that Miami had signed offensive lineman Jake Long four days before the draft, giving everyone one guaranteed prediction. It was then obvious that defensive lineman Chris Long would go to St. Louis at No. 2, making the actual success rate 14.4 percent. And upon even further analysis, they found that Oakland and Dallas had made no attempt to hide their desire to draft Arkansas running backs Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. Outside of these four picks, Coldhardfootballfacts.com’s study found that these selected “pundits” had correctly predicted just 9.9 percent of the remaining first round picks.
And so when these pundits/gurus/prophets/experts fall on their faces as per usual this year — despite devoting every waking day of the year in preparation — they will immediately grade each draft class and predict the future performances of each player with equally poor results.
Rather than take the bait again, stop yourself and pick up a rag with a more rational approach, such as the April 13 Sporting News. It analyzes each team’s position needs, dishes out a grade for five-year draft histories and features insight from college prospects and perspectives from previously-drafted pros.
ICEMAN MELTETH
Deserving or not of the media attention that, for a while, anointed him the face of MMA, “The Iceman” Chuck Liddell helped push the Ultimate Fighting Championship into the mainstream.
A first-round knockout at the hands of Mauricio “Shogun” Rua — his fourth loss in his last five fights — effectively ended the career of the near 40-year-old Liddell. While I’d like to have seen Liddell and Randy Couture end their careers with a fourth and final fight against one another, Liddell hasn’t been himself since his May 2007 knockout by Quinton “Rampage” Jackson. In fact, three of his last four losses have been knockouts, including a devastating September 2008 knockout by current light heavyweight champion Rashad Evans.
In the end, much like in boxing, all fighters regress. It’s human reality. And whether you’re a fan or not, Liddell’s contribution to the UFC’s rise will be his enduring legacy.
— — Edited by Justin Leverett
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Morning Brew: Draft gurus always flop
Filling out my mock draft now. Stafford to the Lions, Smith to the Rams, Curry to the Chiefs... couldn't be wrong.
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