Thursday, March 12, 2009
Bill Self didn’t think he’d be worried about his team’s seed this year.
Not after losing six players to professional basketball, including four to the NBA.
Yes, Who’s going Dancing?
Team Conference
Cornell Ivy League
East Tenn. St. Atlantic Sun
Radford Big Sky
Virginia Commonwealth Colonial
Cleveland State Horizon
Siena Metro Atlantic
Northern Iowa Missouri Valley
Morehead State Ohio Valley
Chattanooga Southern
North Dakota St. Summit
Western Kentucky Sun Belt
Gonzaga West Coast
Robert Morris Northeast
Portland State / Montana State Big Sky
Seeds are something Top 10 teams worry about, not teams that are in a rebu — err, I mean reloading year.
But now things have changed. And Self’s tune has changed too.
Kansas, the Big 12’s regular season champion, faces Baylor at 11:30 a.m. today in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 tournament in Oklahoma City.
And we’re about to spend the next few days talking about NCAA tournament seeds.
But here’s the thing: How important is an NCAA tournament seed?
Well, let’s take a look.
In the last 20 years, No. 1 seeds have won 70% of the NCAA tournament. No. 2 seeds have won the title 10% of the time — Duke won as a No. 2 seed in 1991 and Kentucky won as a No. 2 in 1998.
Interestingly, No. 3 seeds have actually won 15% of the last 20 NCAA tournaments. Michigan was a No. 3 in 1989; Syracuse was a No. 3 in 2003; and Florida was a No. 3 in 2006.
Add it all up, and 95% of the last 20 tournaments have been won by one, two, or three-seeds.
The lone exception, of course, was Arizona, who won as No. 4 seed in 1997.
Of course, it’s not impossible for a 5-seed or below to win the whole thing. After all, Kansas was a 6-seed in 1988. But it’s definitely unlikely, even in a year like this one, where no clear favorite has emerged.
So where does that leave Self and Kansas?
Well, if Kansas advances to the finals of the Big 12 tournament, they will likely drop no lower than a two-seed.
A convincing victory against Oklahoma in the Big 12 tournament final could propel into the discussion for a 1-seed, but Kansas’ weak non-conference resume will likely prevent Kansas from earning a top seed, regardless of what they do in Oklahoma City.
If Kansas loses today, or in the semifinals on Friday, it could fall to a No. 3 or No. 4 seed.
What’s our prediction?
Kansas loses to Oklahoma in the Big 12 tournament final and the Jayhawks end up as the No. 2 seed in the South Region. And guess who would likely be the No. 1 seed in the South? Well, ol’ Roy, Psycho T and the rest of the Tar Heels.
Mid-major watch
It pains us to report that two of the Morning Brew’s favorite college players will likely be left out of the Big Dance.
Davidson’s Stephen Curry and St. Mary’s Patty Mills, two of the best guards in America, won’t be playing in the NCAA tournament. We all know of Curry’s exploits, but it’s too bad more fans won’t get to know Mills.
Just a sophomore, Mills shined for the Australian national team at the Beijing Olympics and was playing great this season before breaking two bones in his hand. Mills returned earlier this month, but he looked like a shell of his former self as St. Mary’s got blasted by Gonzaga in the finals of the West Coast Conference tournament.
Salute to the Wizard
Legendary UCLA basketball coach John Wooden was released from the hospital on Tuesday after a battle with pneumonia. Wooden, who won 10 NCAA championships at UCLA, including seven in a row from 1967 to 1973, will turn 99 later this year.
There’s no better time of year to honor and salute Wooden. The “Wizard of Westwood” hasn’t coached a basketball game in 34 years, but the iconic Wooden is still an inspirational figure to millions of basketball fans.
My high school basketball coach used to tack Wooden quotes on the locker room bulletin board, and start practices by reciting from Wooden’s “Pyramid of Success.”
Wooden helped build college basketball into a national sport.
Let the madness begin.
— — Edited by Realle Roth
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