Morning Brew: Guide to the Sweet Sixteen

Life in March is a funny thing. Office sick days go up. Production goes down. Beer consumption goes up. Test scores go down. Gambling debts go up. Marriage counseling bills go … well, up.

Anyway, the point is there’s nothing like the KU campus in March. You know, I love that feeling when everyone has one collective thought on his or her mind. On Facebook right now, I think there are about 700 million statuses about KU basketball.

And after a three-day break, the big dance is back. The Sweet Sixteen round starts tonight with regional semifinals being played in the West and East Regions. And of course, Kansas plays Michigan State at 8:37 p.m. on Friday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Here’s the Morning Brew’s 10-minute guide to the Sweet Sixteen.

Coach Speak

It’s really no big secret that coaches are the stars of college basketball. Of course, you’ve heard the argument that coaches are one part CEO, one part general manager, one part coach, one part parent, one part recruiter and so on. Of course, coaches have always been stars. Just go back to Dean Smith and John Wooden and Knight and Rupp and Allen and so forth.

And so here we are in the Sweet Sixteen and we have a collection of coaches that would rank up their with any in the history of the game. Yep, this year it’s truly about the guys in Armani.

Just look at this list.

1. Duke: Mike Krzyzewski - 3 titles, 10 Final Fours

2. North Carolina: Roy Williams - 1 title, 6 Final Fours

3. Louisville: Rick Pitino - 1 title, Five Final Fours (And the only coach to take three different teams)

4. Michigan State: Tom Izzo, 1 title, 4 Final Fours

5. Syracuse: Jim Boeheim - 1 title, 3 Final Fours

6. Connecticut: Jim Calhoun - 2 titles, 2 Final Fours

7. Kansas: Bill Self, 1 title, 1 Final Four

8. Memphis: John Calipari, 0 titles, 2 Final Fours

Louisville sleeper

If Kansas can knock off Michigan State in the Sweet Sixteen, the Jayhawks will most likely have a date with No. 1 seed Louisville in the Elite Eight.

The Cardinals’ season has taken on a interesting narrative. A trendy Final Four pick in October, Louisville scuffled in November and December, losing games to Western Kentucky, Minnesota and UNLV. And of course, the Cardinals were quickly resigned to the college basketball scrap heap.

Now three months later, Louisville has a Big East regular season championship and postseason tournament title on its resume, and the Cardinals are the tournaments overall No. 1 seed.

So how did Louisville do it? Well, of course, there’s not one answer. But much of the turnaround should be credited to the brilliant play of senior forward Terrence Williams.

Williams is a rare species in the college game. He’s a hybrid point-forward, who has the ability to jump-start Louisville’s offense from the forward position. Williams, a 6-foot-6 forward, averages just 12.7 points per game, but rebounds remarkable well for his size — 8.7 rebounds per game — and hands out 5 assists per contest. He doesn’t have gaudy stats like Blake Griffin, he isn’t a physical specimen like DeJuan Blair, and he isn’t worshipped by ESPN like Tyler Hansbrough. But Williams may just be the most valuable player in the country.

Who’s cutting down the nets?

There’s a great story about Russell Robinson after Kansas beat Davidson and advanced to the Final Four last year. The Jayhawks took their time and snipped down the net at one end of the court.

It took about 25 minutes, and by the time Bill Self cut the last strands of net, the Kansas players and coaches were ready to get back to the locker room to celebrate. Robinson had another thought. His eyes were focused on the other end of the court.

“Hey,” Robinson shouted to nobody in particular. “What about the other net? Can we get that other net?”

Four teams will get to climb a ladder and cut down the nets as Regional Champs. So who will it be? Well, let’s go to basketball statistics guru Ken Pomeroy at Basketball Prospectus.

According to Pomeroy’s complicated* formula, these teams have the best odds of making it to the Final Four in Detroit.

*Seriously, we don’t have enough ink to explain it. I know I sound a little like former treasury secretary Henry Paulson right before Congress passed the $700 billion bailout plan, but it’s true.

Pomeroy gives Louisville a 47.6 percent chance to come out of the Midwest Region, while he gives Pittsburgh a 40.1 percent chance to come out of the East. Memphis is his pick in the West, with a 40.8 percent chance, and he goes with North Carolina in the South with just a 35.4 percent likelihood.

As for Kansas, Pomeroy gives Kansas a 26 percent chance to make it to the Final Four, but just a 5 percent chance to win it all.

If you recall, Pomeroy gave Kansas the best odds to win it all at this time last year.

Just saying.

— — Edited by Liz Schubauer

 

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