Thursday, April 22, 2010
I don’t know how good new basketball recruit Josh Selby will be at Kansas. And if I’m being honest, I’m not particularly interested in the matter either.
Of course super-recruit Selby’s commitment to Kansas has inspired a lot of optimistic speculation.
Will he do for Kansas what John Wall did for Kentucky? Can he be that kind of standout point guard, taking over games and filling Sherron Collins’ shoes so well that the senior will hardly be missed? Will Kansas still be a national championship contender, even after losing two first round quality players?
Of course, for all of that wide-eyed optimism, there must be a more realistic perspective. Sure, Selby could be John Wall. He could dominate from the get-go and lead Kansas to a 1-seed (and maybe even a deeper tournament run than either the Jayhawks or Wildcats managed this past season). But he could also be Avery Bradley, the Texas point guard who was rated by some services as a better recruit than Wall. Bradley had a decent enough year, but he and his Longhorns ultimately fell well short of expectations.
What does this mean for Selby? It means you, me and everyone else have no clue how he’s going to affect Kansas’ team. There simply is not enough evidence to form an opinion.
Selby is a stud recruit. Stud recruits are sometimes stud players. But sometimes — if not as frequently — they are disappointments.
There is no way to surmise what Selby will do at Kansas this early. Instead, Kansas fans should speculate about players they’ve actually seen.
For example, we might look at Marcus Morris’ remarkable improvement from his freshman to sophomore season. His evolution took him from a frustrating role-player to perhaps Kansas’ most consistent contributor. Given another year of seasoning, how much better might Marcus get?
How about his twin, Markieff? The other Morris didn’t put up as gaudy of numbers — but then he was playing behind Cole Aldrich, former center. With Aldrich off to the NBA, Markieff should get to play more minutes.
Even disregarding Selby, the backcourt offers plenty to speculate on.
Will Brady Morningstar rediscover his three-point range? Perhaps Tyrel Reed will continue the upward tick he ended the season with, and he could give Kansas a dynamic perimeter scorer. And speaking of dynamic perimeter players, what about Elijah Johnson? He was a five-star recruit only a year ago, and he showed flashes of ability in his limited court time.
These are all players Kansas fans have seen enough of to form an educated opinion, so they’re also players about whom speculation can be based on something more tangible than star ratings and high school all-star games.
If you absolutely must try and predict college basketball outcomes in April, do so based on who is coming back, not who is arriving. Realize that, at least for now, Selby is not a savior.
— Edited by Allyson Shaw
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Beecher: Look at past players to predict next year’s performance
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