Wednesday, March 31, 2010
My bracket never had a chance. After the first day of this year’s NCAA Tournament, I decided not to take another look at my picks. No. 3 seed Georgetown had been upset in the first round and I had picked the Hoyas to play Kansas in the Elite Eight.
The rest of the first weekend didn’t treat me much better. The Jayhawks were upset by Northern Iowa and my bracket was completely busted. Like millions of other people, I had picked Kansas to win it all and my hopes of winning my online pool were in shambles.
The Sweet 16 and the Elite Eight games helped destroy what was left of my bracket. Butler and Michigan State surprised everyone by making it to the Final Four and I never thought West Virginia would defeat Kentucky. All of this March Madness got me thinking: What do I need to do next year to have a better bracket?
After recovering from my worst bracket in years, I came up with a few ideas. Here are four tips for filling out your bracket for the 2011 NCAA Tournament.
1.) Don’t pick all four No. 1 seeds to make it to the Final Four.
Almost every year in the Toland Tournament Challenge (my family’s annual NCAA Tournament pool), I would pick all four No. 1 seeds to advance to the Final Four. I never had any luck, and my brothers would give me a hard time for not picking any upsets. Finally, I decided to change up my strategy. In 2008, I did not pick the four top teams to make it out
of their regionals. As luck would have it, the 2008 NCAA Tournament was the first time ever that all four No. 1 seeds made it to the Final Four. It has not happened again since 2008, and it probably will not happen again for a long time.
2.) Don’t count on the strength of conferences.
The Big East was highly regarded as the best conference in college basketball this season, but the league has really struggled in this year’s tournament.
On day one, Big East teams went 1-3, and just two Big East teams cracked the Sweet 16. On the other hand, the much maligned Pac-10 scored two big wins in the first round, which included a victory by California against Big East Conference member Louisville. No. 11 seed Washington even made the Sweet 16 after pulling off two big upsets. A conference can look bad on paper all season long, but it might just be the result of strong competition top-to-bottom. Anything can happen in the NCAA Tournament.
3.) Don’t count out the great coaches.
Heading into this year’s tournament, many people counted out the Michigan State Spartans. Two weeks later, the Spartans are preparing for their sixth Final Four since 1998 under coach Tom Izzo, despite losing star point guard Kalin Lucas during the second round.
Most NCAA Tournament games are close and it really helps to have a great coach on the sidelines during crunch time. Think twice before picking against the likes of Izzo, Bill Self, and Coach K in the Big Dance.
- Keep picking Kansas.
Every year, I pick the Jayhawks to win the National Championship. It doesn’t matter if the Jayhawks are a No. 1 seed or if they just slipped into the NCAA Tournament — I can’t pick against Kansas.
Although the Jayhawks had an early exit from this year’s Big Dance, I am confident that Kansas will bounce back and have a great season next year. Bill Self’s Kansas teams have been a model of consistency during the past few years and the Jayhawks will be tough for anyone to beat in 2011.
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Editor's note: Some tips for filling out next year’s bracket
Those are three good tips. I always follow #1, but, this year, I did not follow #2 or #3. My final four was Kansas (projected winner), Syracuse, West Va., and Baylor. I did pick West Va. to beat Kentucky (obviously), but I thought Duke had gotten where it was largely on reputation, and thought Baylor would beat them, if Duke even got that far. But Coach K is probably the greatest current college basketball coach, and your tip #3 would have served me well in that pick. I was aware of Izzo's Final Four record, but cannot even remember Michigan State's route to the Final Four. If you think you're frustrated, I am a Georgetown fan, and watched them beat Butler and Duke soundly in the regular season, then almost win the Big East Tournament, only to be humiliated by a mediocre team in the NCAA Tournament. I live in Providence, so I was at that debacle. It would not have been more embarrassing if they'd lost to a middle-school girls' team.
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