Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Funny how it all plays out sometimes.
About a week ago, and about seven months too early to say, Kansas looked like quite the long shot for an eighth-straight Big 12 title. Texas was too good, Kansas was losing too much, and the Kansas math looked even more implausible than it did heading into this year.
Then Jordan Hamilton announced his decision to enter the draft, along with Tristan Thompson and Cory Joseph, all in one fell swoop. And the Longhorns went from presumptive Big 12 favorite and national preseason top-five team to maybe outside the top-five of the diminished Big 12.
So who remains? Baylor will be good, with the unexpected return of Perry Jones adding to the formidably lengthy frontline of Quincy Acy and Anthony Jones. Texas A&M returns super-soph Khris Middleton, and Mark Turgeon is as good a coach as any not named Bill Self in the league. Missouri, too, will be loaded, assuming Kimmie English and Laurence Bowers do the smart thing and return to school.
But Baylor, for all its returning talent and remarkable freshman class, had even more talent last season and crumbled like feta cheese. Coach Scott Drew has struggled to maximize the incredible potential he pulls into Waco on a yearly basis. Barring a dramatic turnaround in that regard, Baylor’s finishing no better than second or third in the league.
Texas A&M is essentially the exact opposite of Baylor. The Aggies lack the talent, outside of Middleton and David Loubeau, to be a top contender even in a weak Big 12. Turgeon keeps on winning even without it, turning them into a perennial NCAA Tournament team. But they’re still not at the level where they can actually win the league.
That leaves Missouri, which just hired a coach that didn’t have a winning season in the ACC in seven years at Miami. He’s got all sorts of talent, including maybe the best backcourt in the league, but if new coach Frank Haith couldn’t win in the top-heavy ACC, the Big 12 shouldn’t be any easier.
So Kansas, despite losing the Morris twins and the unlimited potential (and limited production) of Josh Selby, looks like the early favorite once again. If the Jayhawks are good enough to back it up, the world will know early with the tough non-conference schedule on deck. But even if they lose that second game to Kentucky, and fall to 1-4, worst case scenario, at the brutal Maui Invitational, they’ll have lost, maybe, their four most difficult games of the year. The Big 12 lacks the talent of the majority of schools in the Maui field, and Kentucky and Ohio State are the best two teams on the Kansas schedule. So Kansas could still be the favorite, even if they had five non-conference losses.
Funny how it all plays out sometimes.
— Edited by Dave Boyd
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