For college basketball fans, February is one of the most entertaining months of the year. Selection Sunday is just weeks away as teams across the country look to punch their tickets to the NCAA Tournament.

The nation’s elite fight for No. 1 seeds, while the bubble teams desperately scrape and claw to build legitimate tournament resumes. Games with postseason implications are televised six days a week, bracketologists at various media outlets work overtime, and throughout the entire process, I’m in hog heaven.

The Big 12 features one of the most compelling conference races in the country. Seven-time defending champion Kansas burst out of the gates, but has looked increasingly vulnerable in its last four games. Senior-laden Missouri and uber-athletic Baylor remain hot on the Jayhawks’ heels.

There is a marginal drop-off in quality below the top three in the conference, but the intrigue certainly remains: Kansas State and Iowa State approach each game as an opportunity to strengthen their postseason claims, while clubs like Oklahoma, Texas and Texas A&M embrace the spoiler role.

It is widely accepted that five teams in the Big 12—Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Kansas State and Iowa State—are tournament-bound. Time to take a look at their tournament resumes and project where they’ll wind up in the 68-team bracket on March 11.

TOURNAMENT LOCKS

Kansas

Ever since its eye-popping 92-74 win over Baylor, Kansas has shown some kinks in the armor. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi gave the Jayhawks a No. 1 seed until it lost to Iowa State, at which point he dropped them to a No. 2 seed (and rightfully so). Nevertheless, Kansas has built an excellent tournament resume thus far: eighth in the RPI, 10th in strength of schedule, and six wins against RPI top 50 teams, including convincing victories over Ohio State and Baylor. Its one bad loss came to Davidson back in mid-December.

Coach Bill Self has declared the upcoming four games—at Missouri, at Baylor, versus Oklahoma State and at Kansas State—as the toughest stretch in his team’s schedule. Who could disagree? The Jayhawks’ seeding largely depends on how they do in these next three road games. Three wins fire them into No. 1 seed discussion; three losses drop them into the No. 3 or No.4 seed range. Kansas will receive plenty of fan support at the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City, which may help it climb up in the rankings. If someone besides Tyshawn Taylor or Thomas Robinson gets hot and stays hot—whether its Elijah Johnson from the perimeter, Travis Releford from midrange or Jeff Withey inside—Kansas should land a No. 2 seed.

Projected seed: 2

Missouri

Frank Haith should be named the Big 12 Coach of the Year. Heading into an ESPN College Game Day showdown with rivals Kansas Saturday night, the Tigers are 20-2 and ranked fourth nationally. Its four-guard lineup, featuring senior Marcus Denmon (17.1 PPG), has fueled a sixth-ranked scoring offense (81.1 PPG). Following its 16-point loss to Kansas State on Jan. 7, Missouri’s tournament resume was actually lacking. Two quality wins against Cal and Illinois and a non-conference schedule ranked 261st did little to impress bracketologists. Since then, the Tigers have won at Iowa State, at Baylor and at Texas, proving they are capable of dethroning Kansas from its seven-year reign in the league.

The only thing currently keeping Missouri from a No. 1 seed is its underwhelming strength of schedule (112th) and lack of signature wins beyond Baylor. However, Missouri hosts Kansas Saturday in a colossal matchup that will undoubtedly impact the Big 12 race. A week later, Baylor visits Columbia for another vital game. If the Tigers win both, they will likely ascend to a No. 1 seed. That said, they still have to visit Allen Fieldhouse one last time on Feb. 25. Just a hunch, but I can’t see them doing well in that one. Expect Missouri to lose unexpectedly somewhere along the way and receive a No. 2 seed.

Projected seed: 2

Baylor

Baylor is boosted by a third-ranked RPI, 13th-ranked strength of schedule and 19-2 overall record. Scott Drew’s team has an impressive seven wins against the RPI top 50, including victories away from home against San Diego State, St. Mary’s, Mississippi State, West Virginia and Kansas State. The Bears boast the most talent of any team in the conference—forwards Perry Jones III and Quincy Miller are fantastic NBA prospects—but questions loom about their physical toughness. Big men Thomas Robinson and Missouri’s Ricardo Ratliffe manhandled Baylor in its two losses, scoring 27 points apiece.

Similar to Missouri and Kansas, Baylor must do more to land a No. 1 seed. While it has only two losses, it has yet to beat the top two teams in the league. If the Bears do that—they host Kansas Feb. 8 and travel to Missouri on Feb. 11—they should control their own destiny in claiming a top seed. But tricky road games at Texas (Feb. 20) and Iowa State (Mar. 3) and a lack of fan support at the conference tournament could be problematic. In the end, Baylor won’t have enough losses to fall further than a No. 2 seed.

Projected seed: 2

STILL SOME WORK TO DO

Kansas State

The Wildcats are by no means a surefire tournament team. Consider some of the couple blemishes on its resume: a 261st-ranked non-conference strength of schedule, two losses to Oklahoma and a 4-5 record in league play. Kansas State’s loss to Iowa State on Tuesday could be more crippling than people think. After two easy home games versus Texas A&M and Texas Tech, the Wildcats face a brutal four game stretch at Texas (Feb. 11), home to Kansas (Feb. 13), at Baylor (Feb. 18) at Missouri (Feb. 21). Indeed, each of these games is very losable. Frank Martin’s club is in trouble if it accumulates more than eight conference losses.

On the bright side, Kansas State has quality wins over Long Beach State and Missouri. Its 42nd-ranked RPI and 8-5 record against RPI Top 150 teams reflect positively on the squad. And as tough as its remaining schedule is, Kansas State has a chance to pick up signature wins against the class of the conference. Furthermore, the Wildcats have only one remaining difficult home game—Kansas on Feb. 13. Bramlage Coliseum has transformed into one of the second-toughest place to play in the league. The “Octagon of Doom” will help Kansas State pick up enough wins to clinch a birth with room to spare.

Projected seed: 9

Iowa State

Iowa State’s win against Kansas last Saturday did wonders for its tournament chances. Prior to that game, The Cyclones had just one win versus the RPI top 150. Fred Hoiberg’s squad took another giant step Tuesday, narrowly defeating Kansas State and improving to 6-3 in league play and 16-6 overall. The bad news? Iowa State is weaker away from Hilton Coliseum, and trips to Baylor, Kansas State and Missouri beckon. Furthermore, its nonconference schedule was very weak—190th nationally. Iowa State is far from safe, as losses down the road to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State or Texas Tech could burst its bubble.

Nevertheless, the Cyclones must be happy with their current position. Royce White, a conference Newcomer of the Year candidate, is the only player in the nation who leads his team in points, rebounds and assists. Guards Scott Christopherson, Chris Allen, Chris Babb and Tyrus McGee all shoot above 35 percent from 3-point range, which may prove lethal come tournament time. If Iowa State reaches 10 conference wins, it should squeak into the 68-team field.

Projected seed: 10