Friday, November 21st, 2008

Nystrom: Leaving early could have cost millions

Thor Nystrom shares his thoughts with the University.

By Thor Nystrom

Wednesday, April 30th, 2008

Anthony Collins, we never knew you. And that’s a shame.

Collins parlayed one stellar season into a ticket to the NFL. His only question in the aftermath should be: Is that ticket refundable?

The junior from Beaumont, Texas, committed the biggest sin prospects can make when deciding whether or not they should leave early: He didn’t understand his stock. And it probably cost him millions.

The Cincinnati Bengals scooped him up with the 13th selection in Round 4, the 112th selection overall. It ended a free-fall that dropped him out of any substantial signing bonus he could have received by going on the draft’s first day.

It didn’t have to be this way. Collins burned his final year of eligibility. He could have returned to a dynamic offense. He could have protected Todd Reesing during a 3,000-yard passing season and paved the way for Jake Sharp to carve out 1,000 yards on the ground. He could have helped the Jayhawks compete for the Big 12 North title and simultaneously pushed his stock through the roof; many draft projections believed he would have entered next season with a first-round grade. Instead, he sold early.

I’m sure Collins believed his stock was rising after having been selected as an Associated Press first-team All-American and Outland Trophy finalist in his final season. I’m sure he wanted to leave on top with his friend Aqib Talib after the Orange Bowl victory. I’m sure he felt that a good showing at the combine would lock him in as either a high second-round pick or low first-rounder. He shouldn’t have taken that chance. There was simply too much money at stake.

And we have precedence for a player that left the Fighting Mangino’s early only to be severely disappointed by the draft process. Charles Gordon insists to this day that he didn’t make a mistake by coming out early, despite the fact that he was not selected and had to claw his way on the Minnesota Vikings roster. I’m sure Collins will say he doesn’t regret his decision either.

That’s fine. But Gordon and Collins are vastly different players. Gordon was small and slow for the cornerback position. Another year in college might have pushed him into the very latter stages of the draft, but it wasn’t going to make him a first-day pick. He simply does not have the measurables that teams are looking for when they make a selection. Coming out early wasn’t a big mistake. Either way, he was going to have to earn his keep or find a job in another field.

Collins is more blessed. His stock wasn’t going down. He has all the skills the NFL is looking for. With another year in college, and another successful season, he was in line to rake in a multi-million signing bonus that would set him up for life.

Look, I’m happy he can pursue his dream. But it wasn’t going anywhere. Waiting a year would have been wise. Instead, he entered a draft loaded with offensive tackles: Jake Long, Ryan Clady, Branden Albert (if you count him as a tackle), Chris Williams, Gosder Cherilus, Jeff Otah, Sam Baker and Duane Brown. And those are just the first-round guys. By the time Collins should have been picked, maybe the late second or early third round, every team that needed a tackle had already filled their holes with more polished prospects. Collins suffered a needless drop.

Scout Inc. on ESPN.com had this to say about Collins: “Collins will likely need at least a year of polishing before he’s ready to contribute in the NFL. His footwork is spotty, he must improve his explosive power and most importantly he needs to play with more consistent leverage.”

Gee, I wonder — if Collins could take that year, work on his weaknesses and gain millions, would he? It’s too bad he can’t make the decision over again.

— Edited by Patrick De Oliveira

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