Morning Brew: How legit are sports pundits and polls?
Fluctuating polls and illegitimate expert opinions muddy up football debates.
By Asher Fusco (Contact)
Tuesday, October 14th, 2008
College football season is at its midway mark, and the polls are fluctuating as quickly as the wind of public opinion reshuffles the presupposed powerhouses and fledgling flavors of the week.
What else is new?
To err is human, and the pollsters do a lot of erring. This preseason, Associated Press voters earmarked West Virginia, Clemson, Auburn and Arizona State as some of the nation’s 15 best squads. Considering the poor showing by the AP poll — usually much more legit than the joke that is the Coaches’ Poll — maybe it’s time we started ignoring the experts’ whims in favor of some hard data.
That’s where the Sagarin Ratings come in. The ratings, compiled by stat guru Jeff Sagarin and included as part of the BCS formula, judge teams’ merit based on strength of schedule, margin of victory and home/road performances. Teams shoot up and down the charts in the season’s opening weeks, but everything seems to level out by midseason.
The numbers don’t look especially auspicious for Kansas. The Jayhawks are ranked 28th in the nation, trailing no-name programs such as Ball State and Minnesota. But that’s the great thing about stats: They don’t lie. They don’t take reputation or past successes into consideration. And face it — escaping Iowa State with a two-point victory isn’t a good win.
The ratings predict a 1-5 slide the rest of the way for Kansas, with the only victory coming against 57th-ranked Kansas State. Sagarin agrees with the conventional wisdom that Kansas will fall to all four of its nationally ranked opponents (Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Texas and Missouri) and ventures onto a limb to predict a loss at 36th-ranked Nebraska.
Elsewhere in the Big 12 Conference, the statistics back up what everybody already knows: No. 1 Texas is outstanding, No. 5 Oklahoma is elite, No. 9 Oklahoma State is dangerous, and No. 11 Texas Tech and No. 18 Missouri aren’t too shabby either. Oh yeah, and No. 104 Texas A&M is absolutely horrendous. The Aggies are ranked behind eight FCS (formerly Division 1-AA) teams.
Back in the Phog...finally
The warm weather might not agree, but it’s that time of the year again. Ear-damaging decibels, camping groups, alley-oops and the euphoria that only the greatest sporting venue in the world can provide: Basketball season in Lawrence is fast approaching.
Kansas media day is Thursday, Late Night in the Phog is Friday and Big 12 media days are next week, meaning everybody will become acquainted with the seven new Jayhawks in short order. After all the buildup and hype, the Jayhawks will tip off their regular season on Nov. 16 against UMKC.
Only 33 more agonizing days until the beauty of college basketball comes back. Only one more painful month until Kansas earns some attention for something other than its students embarrassing themselves with a classless and moronic kickoff chant.
Godspeed, basketball. Godspeed.
— Edited by Andy Greenhaw
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